US Ecommerce Growth Projections (2024–2027)
Recent data indicates that in the third quarter of 2023, ecommerce sales in the United States reached an all-time high, surging by 7.6% year-on-year to reach $284.1 billion. This notable increase underscores the upward trajectory of ecommerce penetration rates, which have been rising steadily in recent years and are projected to continue their annual growth until at least 2027.
But what implications does this hold for US ecommerce sales, and what do US ecommerce growth projections look like in the coming years? We explore industry analysts’ US ecommerce forecasts to gain a better understanding of the landscape ahead.
US ecommerce growth projections: 2024
According to a recent report, US ecommerce sales are projected to rise by 10.5% in 2024. This marks a 0.8 percentage point uptick from the previous year and a return to double-digit growth since the 17.3% annual increase in 2021.
Industry analysts suggest that this projection indicates a normalization of US ecommerce growth rates to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, in 2020 and 2021, annual growth rates soared to extraordinary levels, reaching 36.7% and 17.3%, respectively.
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Experts anticipate that deals and discounts promoted on digital platforms will serve as the primary driving force behind the US ecommerce forecast for 2024. In terms of age demographics, Generation Z consumers are expected to emerge as key contributors to this surge in ecommerce activity.
US ecommerce growth projections: 2025–2027
Looking ahead, US ecommerce growth projections appear to be heading in an upward trend. Double-digit annual increases are predicted through to 2027, accelerating slightly every year.
Analysts studying the US’s ecommerce forecast expect growth to rise by 0.3 percentage points in 2025, to 10.8%, as online sales rise to $1.39 trillion. Another 0.2 percentage point increase is projected in 2026, which will take annual growth to 11%.
By 2027, US ecommerce sales are set to exceed $1.7 trillion, after an 11.3% yearly increase. The US ecommerce market share is also set to surpass 20% that year, which means that more than $1 out of every $5 spent on retail items in 2027 is set to be transacted online.
From 2024 to 2027, US ecommerce growth projections show sales are set to rise at an average annual growth rate of 10.9%.